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Market Matters – April 3, 2021 Edition


 

The biggest news to come this week was a strong beat in the job numbers for the month of March. The strong beat is a good sign that the economy is improving, most likely due to the states reopening, a drop in Covid-19 cases, vaccine rollout, and the stimulus. While the increase in jobs is encouraging, we will need to see the economy recover many more jobs to get back to the level prior to the pandemic. For the time being, there is optimism in the recovery, and it would be best to stay defensive.

 

Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims increased by +61k to 719k for the week ending March 26th over the prior week’s revised print of 658k (orig. 684k). This now put the 4-week moving average of new claims at the 719k mark, the lowest since March 2020. Continuing claims, which lag by a week, fell by -46k to 3.794mln from a prior 3.84mln, now the lowest level since March 21st at 3.059mln. Continuing claims are now down -19.3mln from the highs reached during the May 9th week of last year. Those claims have fallen in each week but three since July 2020, and over that time, they have fallen at a total of -13.1mln.
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Jobs Report

Nonfarm payrolls in March rose +916k with private payrolls up +780k, and government up +136. This is the largest gain in headline jobs since August 2020. We also see strong revisions with February up to +468k from +379k, and January up to +233k from +166k, a net change of +156k. Looking back into the March report, leisure and hospitality rose +280k, construction was up +110k, education up +64k, and manufacturing +53k. Within the household survey, the unemployment rate fell to 6% as expected, as there was a good mix of labor force growth of +347k, and employment growth of +609k. The labor force participation rate rose +.1 to 61.5%, back to where it was last December. Average hourly earnings were down -.1% on the month, however it was reported there was a good mix of lower wage workers returning. Looking YoY, wage growth fell from +5.2% to now +4.2%. Finally, the workweek saw a bounce back up of +.3 to 34.9 hours. While this was a very strong report and much better than expectations on headline, there are still nearly 5 million fewer Americans employed vs. a year ago, while the labor force is down by 2.2 million.

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ADP Employment Report
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Case-Shiller HPI

 




We feel bearish on the market as the 10-year is at 1.720%. We have resistance at 1.633%, while we have support at 1.77%, then at 1.951%. It is best to be safe and get those loans locked.

 

Call today to discuss this week’s market trends.

 

 

Pam Jamison
Loan Originator
NMLS# 277012
8310-1 N. Capital of Texas Highway, Suite 195, Austin, TX 78731
512-775-1001 | 512-582-8778
pam.jamison@primelending.com | 
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