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Market Matters – May 13, 2022 Edition


 

 

Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims rose by 1k to 203k for the week ending May 7th. The 4-week moving average rose 4.3k to 192.8k, the highest since the week of March 5th. Continuing claims, which lag by a week, fell -44k to 1.343mln and are now at their outright lowest levels since the first week of 1970. They’re also well below pre-pandemic levels, which average about 1.798mln in February 2020. The sum of claims in all programs fell by -38k to 1.44mln, the lowest since October 2019.
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Consumer Price Index

CPI rose .3% on headline in April vs. the prior 1.2% increase back in March. Looking YoY, the all-items headline index increased by 8.3%, down from the 8.5% reported for March. Looking at the core measure, which strips out food and energy components, we see a MoM increase of .6%, with the YoY rate at 6.2%, down from a prior 6.5%. Within the data, shelter gained .5%, rents up .6%, food up .9%, with energy down -2.7%. Strong growth was seen in the airline fares index, up 18.6% this month, which was the most significant one-month increase since the measure began in 1963. Another large contribution to the recent rise in prices has been auto sales. This month, while used vehicle prices fell -.4%, new vehicle prices rose by 1.1%. Prices rose 22.7% and 13.2% for the two, respectively, over the past year. Finally, and probably one of the most important results here is that real wages adjusted for inflation declined by -.1% on the month despite the nominal increase of .3% in average hourly earnings seen from the last jobs report. Over the past year, real earnings have dropped -2.6% even though average hourly earnings are up 5.5%.

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Producer Price Index
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Mortgage Applications