Market Matters – December 04, 2021 Edition



Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims rose +28k to 222k in the week ended November 27th vs. the prior week’s revised level of 194k (orig. 199k). The 4-week moving average fell to 238.8k from 251k, which is now the lowest since March 2020. Continuing claims, which lag a week, fell by -107k to 1.956mln from a prior 2.063mln (revised from 2.049mln). This is the first time that continuing claims have fallen below the 2mln mark since the early days of the pandemic. The last time continuing claims were lower than the current 1.96mln was back on March 14, 2020.
Monthly Jobs Report

We saw a big top line miss at 210k jobs vs 550k expected. Unemployment rate came in at 4.2% vs. expected 4.5%. Average weekly earnings were a bit light as well at +0.3% vs +0.4%. The household survey seemed strong, but the employer survey was weak. The market is still pricing in a faster taper and how aggressive the Fed will be with rate hikes is the question.


ADP Employment Report
ISM Manufacturing PMI


We feel neutral on the market as the 10-year is at 1.382%. We have resistance at 1.37%, while we have support at 1.41%, then at 1.50%.




Pam Jamison
Loan Originator
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